Posts Tagged ‘walnut creek housing’

Bay Area Home Sales Decline Again

April 17, 2008

The March 2008 Bay Area real estate numbers are in and it’s yet another decline in Bay Area home sales – for the seventh straight month. Year over year sales are down 41% and median price is down 16%.

For a closer look, check out the county by county numbers provided by DataQuick. Sales volume is down evenly for the most part except for San Francisco with a 20% decline. It’s the median price that has wild fluctuations by county, with San Francisco actually going up a fraction of a percent while Contra Costa, Napa, Solano and Sonoma all have 20%+ declines.

“Other parts of the state have been hit harder by the downturn in the housing market than the Bay Area. Most of the distress is in areas that absorbed spillover activity during the 2004 and 2005 frenzy. For the most part that’s the Central Valley and inland Southern California. It still appears that a lot of Bay Area activity is just on hold, waiting for the mortgage markets to open back up,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

What you talking about?

Perhaps Mr. Prentice is looking at things as a matter of scale. Or maybe his definition of the Bay Area is composed of San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo. Whatever his reasons, I find this statement strange and almost … uninformed (which seems odd since he has so much data at his fingertips.)

March is the beginning of the seasonal real estate season, the shotgun start of sorts. It should have been stronger, and helped along by a very light rainy season. Yet, the numbers aren’t showing any real strength.

Reductions in both sales volume and median price; an increasingly nervous consumer; continuing foreclosures; high inventory; and tight credit all seem to point to continued weakness in sales volume which will ultimately drive median prices lower.

I know folks are trying to pump sunshine into the market in a self-fulfilling prophesy type of way, but it’s becoming a bit silly given the reality of the situation and market.


Foreclosure Heat Map for Walnut Creek Area

April 7, 2008

Technology is a great thing. Today TechCrunch reports on a HotPads foreclosure feature that lets you see a heat map of foreclosures based on data from RealtyTrac. (I won’t get into how reliable that data is, but it’s a benchmark nonetheless.) I poked around and finally got it to work and took this screen cap:

foreclosure heat map for walnut creek california

As with most heat maps, the spectrum goes from red to blue. Most of Walnut Creek is in the hottest bands or highest density of foreclosure. Even Walnut Creek proper is an above average orange color.

On the one hand I’m not shocked. I know plenty of folks reached a bit too far, taking on massive loans and prayed that things would work out. Yet, the color coding drives the point home and shows that even upscale neighborhoods are not immune from the housing decline.

Try it yourself at HotPads. (FYI – I couldn’t get it to work in Firefox so try Safari or the dreaded IE if you must.)

Walnut Creek Pricing Trends

March 2, 2008

There is a lot of data out there about the trends in Walnut Creek housing prices. A number of realtors are very willing to share these snapshots of the current market. But the commentary is often so skewed toward creating sales that it may blind buyers to the true nature of the market.

California Home Sales Trends
In the above chart it should be VERY obvious that the median price increased at an unsupportable rate. This fact is simply not stated by may realtors, but buyers and sellers alike should be aware that the price of homes in California, Walnut Creek included, are inflated and will either drop or remain flat based on historic appreciation.

Buyers – don’t believe the hype. Stay on the sidelines and let the prices fall until you can buy at a price that is historically supportable.