Comments for Walnut Creek Real Estate http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com Trends, Commentary and Advice Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:24:36 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 Comment on Inflated Median Housing Value to Income Ratio by Jack http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/03/05/inflated-median-housing-value-to-income-ratio/#comment-45 Jack Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:24:36 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=5#comment-45 Hi; I came across this article by chance and read it with some surprise. I live in Walnut Creek and have for over 20 years. When I bought my house the lenders used a scale of 15% to 20% of my income after taxes to determine if I could qualify for the loan. It was the same in Marin. When I bought an investment condo here I used the old 100 times gross method to determine if it was a good value or not. Simply if the gross (before all expenses) was $1,000. per month, it was worth $100,000. $2,500 per month = $250,000. People will always need to buy and sell homes, marriages, divorce, death, relocation, retirement and many other reasons as the live their lives. If a person loses his job and cannot afford to pay the mortgage they have to sell or the lender has to foreclose. Too many of these in any location causes the prices to decline. You can argue the dirt is more valuable in Marin than WNC, it would be lame to argue the houses are. I think one of your crass contributors called them shitboxes. What will determine how much housing will sell for in the future will in part be can you find a buyer who is willing to ignore the simple metrics of smart real estate investment and pay what you could have sold your real estate for in June 2007. Sure there are buyers who will pay all cash. Some need a negative cash flow or (write-offs). Some will ignore the lack of public transportation, good jobs and increasing traffic in Marin and other Bay Area communities and pay a premium for the address. There are people who buy Jaguars and Hummers who will tell you "I don't worry about the price of gas or continual repairs". Because we all supposedly impressed that they can afford to waste their money. Baby boomers have been looking forward to that $500,000. when they no longer have to fight that miserable commute. They can buy something more reasonably priced, get away from the traffic, congestion, expenses and attitude of where they live now. They may be ready to take some of their money that they have left out of Wall Street. Do you think they are going to put it into outragiously overpriced real estate? If not, look for some young couple who are making a half million a year to buy you aging house with a great address or think about what it would rent for or how much of a pension income it would take to buy it from you. Would you take what is left of your nest egg to buy the house across the street? Think about it. Cheers Jack Hi;
I came across this article by chance and read it with some surprise. I live in Walnut Creek and have for over 20 years.

When I bought my house the lenders used a scale of 15% to 20% of my income after taxes to determine if I could qualify for the loan. It was the same in Marin.

When I bought an investment condo here I used the old 100 times gross method to determine if it was a good value or not. Simply if the gross (before all expenses) was $1,000. per month, it was worth $100,000. $2,500 per month = $250,000.

People will always need to buy and sell homes, marriages, divorce, death, relocation, retirement and many other reasons as the live their lives. If a person loses his job and cannot afford to pay the mortgage they have to sell or the lender has to foreclose. Too many of these in any location causes the prices to decline.

You can argue the dirt is more valuable in Marin than WNC, it would be lame to argue the houses are. I think one of your crass contributors called them shitboxes.

What will determine how much housing will sell for in the future will in part be can you find a buyer who is willing to ignore the simple metrics of smart real estate investment and pay what you could have sold your real estate for in June 2007.

Sure there are buyers who will pay all cash. Some need a negative cash flow or (write-offs). Some will ignore the lack of public transportation, good jobs and increasing traffic in Marin and other Bay Area communities and pay a premium for the address. There are people who buy Jaguars and Hummers who will tell you “I don’t worry about the price of gas or continual repairs”. Because we all supposedly impressed that they can afford to waste their money.

Baby boomers have been looking forward to that $500,000. when they no longer have to fight that miserable commute. They can buy something more reasonably priced, get away from the traffic, congestion, expenses and attitude of where they live now. They may be ready to take some of their money that they have left out of Wall Street.

Do you think they are going to put it into outragiously overpriced real estate? If not, look for some young couple who are making a half million a year to buy you aging house with a great address or think about what it would rent for or how much of a pension income it would take to buy it from you.

Would you take what is left of your nest egg to buy the house across the street? Think about it.

Cheers

Jack

]]> Comment on Inflated Median Housing Value to Income Ratio by Ming Smokes Dope http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/03/05/inflated-median-housing-value-to-income-ratio/#comment-39 Ming Smokes Dope Sat, 20 Sep 2008 00:26:37 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=5#comment-39 "If people can afford ... and are willing to pay it ... prices won't go down much". Nothing like smokin' that Northern California HomeGrown. But seriously dude, you just don't get it. If you are only making $50K you can only afford $140. You can't afford $300, $400, or $800. Let me state it another way. Noone is going to write mortgages like that anymore. Nobody. Noone. The only reason why banks didn't go broke 10 years ago is that there were bigger idiots willing to buy the overpriced homes with to even more leveraged buyers. Many people used their homes like ATM machines. Who do you think is going to pay $800, and where do you think they will get the money? Throw in Real estate taxes, throw in insurance, throw in the fact that anything with plastic (an oil product), metal, glass, wood, etc. is going to cost more to fix things because the dollar will decrease in value as the Feds print money to pay for the housing bubble mess. Ming not read article. Ming living in time of Ming dynasty. Ming watch lot of TV. Ming for Congress! “If people can afford … and are willing to pay it … prices won’t go down much”. Nothing like smokin’ that Northern California HomeGrown. But seriously dude, you just don’t get it. If you are only making $50K you can only afford $140. You can’t afford $300, $400, or $800. Let me state it another way. Noone is going to write mortgages like that anymore. Nobody. Noone. The only reason why banks didn’t go broke 10 years ago is that there were bigger idiots willing to buy the overpriced homes with to even more leveraged buyers. Many people used their homes like ATM machines. Who do you think is going to pay $800, and where do you think they will get the money? Throw in Real estate taxes, throw in insurance, throw in the fact that anything with plastic (an oil product), metal, glass, wood, etc. is going to cost more to fix things because the dollar will decrease in value as the Feds print money to pay for the housing bubble mess. Ming not read article. Ming living in time of Ming dynasty. Ming watch lot of TV. Ming for Congress!

]]> Comment on Lies, damn lies and statistics by Lee http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/04/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-38 Lee Thu, 12 Jun 2008 23:28:45 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=21#comment-38 So, T, any luck selling your home ? Any nibbles ? So, T, any luck selling your home ? Any nibbles ?

]]> Comment on Bay Area Home Sales Decline Again by T http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/04/17/bay-area-home-sales-decline-again/#comment-36 T Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:24:58 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=25#comment-36 The wife WAS deeply offended. It took her a few hours to accept that we were better off taking the haircut than risking the house sitting on the market for a few more weeks at the risk of a further price adjustment. I'm toast if I'm wrong ;-). Or if for some unexplained reason houses in westside Danville (our target area) are immune to the bust. Sellers in Danville seem not to be acknowleging the increases and price cuts in inventory on the eastside or out towards Wendt/Windemere. The wife WAS deeply offended. It took her a few hours to accept that we were better off taking the haircut than risking the house sitting on the market for a few more weeks at the risk of a further price adjustment. I’m toast if I’m wrong ;-) . Or if for some unexplained reason houses in westside Danville (our target area) are immune to the bust. Sellers in Danville seem not to be acknowleging the increases and price cuts in inventory on the eastside or out towards Wendt/Windemere.

]]> Comment on Bay Area Home Sales Decline Again by wcrealestate http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/04/17/bay-area-home-sales-decline-again/#comment-35 wcrealestate Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:25:45 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=25#comment-35 Congrats T! It goes to show that a savvy seller can unload a property in this market. Too many still chase that elusive 'paper value' in 2006, or even get offended by having to actually take a haircut off asking. Nice job and I look forward to jumping into the market with you in the next 6-18 months! Congrats T! It goes to show that a savvy seller can unload a property in this market. Too many still chase that elusive ‘paper value’ in 2006, or even get offended by having to actually take a haircut off asking. Nice job and I look forward to jumping into the market with you in the next 6-18 months!

]]> Comment on Bay Area Home Sales Decline Again by T http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/04/17/bay-area-home-sales-decline-again/#comment-34 T Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:06:19 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=25#comment-34 Just sold my ~$1.1m home in the Lafayette area. A 3% haircut on asking, 15% below the peak in 2006. Buyers are thin, and mostly corporate transfers or people who've had cash windfalls of some sort. Almost no move-up buyers, and I think as a consequence almost nothing is moving - at least not as fast as inventory is increasing. Everybody who is actually selling is taking 3-5% off their asking price to unload. People who are overpriced seem to be chasing the bottom in belated steps, constantly one step behind buyer's declining sense of value. I feel lucky to get out - expect my home to be in the $900's by this summer. I'm gonna sit out for 6mos to 1yr before buying something new. Just sold my ~$1.1m home in the Lafayette area. A 3% haircut on asking, 15% below the peak in 2006. Buyers are thin, and mostly corporate transfers or people who’ve had cash windfalls of some sort. Almost no move-up buyers, and I think as a consequence almost nothing is moving – at least not as fast as inventory is increasing. Everybody who is actually selling is taking 3-5% off their asking price to unload. People who are overpriced seem to be chasing the bottom in belated steps, constantly one step behind buyer’s declining sense of value. I feel lucky to get out – expect my home to be in the $900’s by this summer. I’m gonna sit out for 6mos to 1yr before buying something new.

]]> Comment on Lies, damn lies and statistics by T http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/04/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-28 T Mon, 07 Apr 2008 19:11:28 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=21#comment-28 I think we are priced right... and the supply in this price range is limited... we'll see. I don't NEED to sell, so that takes some of the pressure off. Even if prices stay flat, I'll have the advantage of a no-contingent offer. It will indeed suck if rates rise, but I'm presuming that won't happen until after the election at least. Though I'm also hoping/betting that the spreads on jumbos will come down from the 150 bps over conforming too. I think we are priced right… and the supply in this price range is limited… we’ll see. I don’t NEED to sell, so that takes some of the pressure off.

Even if prices stay flat, I’ll have the advantage of a no-contingent offer. It will indeed suck if rates rise, but I’m presuming that won’t happen until after the election at least. Though I’m also hoping/betting that the spreads on jumbos will come down from the 150 bps over conforming too.

]]> Comment on Lies, damn lies and statistics by wcrealestate http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/04/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-27 wcrealestate Mon, 07 Apr 2008 17:55:54 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=21#comment-27 I think you've got the right idea. There's going to be a seasonal rally and many a buyer will simply say they "must" buy this year and won't wait. So, I think you'll find a market if you're pricing it well. A recent listing in Walnut Creek's Diablo Shadow neighborhood went on the market at $750K - which was a very attractive price for the area. The result? It sold in the first weekend. I still think it was overpriced, but there were 4+ offers, showing that there is demand, particularly for what is perceived as value in this market. Worst case scenario is that the prices remain the same and interest rates rise slightly. I personally think we'll see another price drop in late Fall after the seasonal flurry of activity and that rates will be essentially unchanged in the face of a flagging housing market. I think you’ve got the right idea. There’s going to be a seasonal rally and many a buyer will simply say they “must” buy this year and won’t wait. So, I think you’ll find a market if you’re pricing it well.

A recent listing in Walnut Creek’s Diablo Shadow neighborhood went on the market at $750K – which was a very attractive price for the area. The result? It sold in the first weekend.

I still think it was overpriced, but there were 4+ offers, showing that there is demand, particularly for what is perceived as value in this market.

Worst case scenario is that the prices remain the same and interest rates rise slightly. I personally think we’ll see another price drop in late Fall after the seasonal flurry of activity and that rates will be essentially unchanged in the face of a flagging housing market.

]]> Comment on Lies, damn lies and statistics by T http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/04/07/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics/#comment-26 T Mon, 07 Apr 2008 17:29:30 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=21#comment-26 I just listed my house in Lafayette, hoping to sell into the pent up winter demand and supposed bottom fishers. I expect something of a bear market rally this spring - but the trend is still decidedly negative. I'm going to sit on the cash for 6-18 months while inventory hopefully rises and prices drop further. Don't want to wait too long, lest interest rates get cranked up again. I just listed my house in Lafayette, hoping to sell into the pent up winter demand and supposed bottom fishers. I expect something of a bear market rally this spring – but the trend is still decidedly negative. I’m going to sit on the cash for 6-18 months while inventory hopefully rises and prices drop further. Don’t want to wait too long, lest interest rates get cranked up again.

]]> Comment on California Home Prices Declining $400 A DAY by wcrealestate http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/2008/03/27/california-home-prices-declining-400-a-day/#comment-24 wcrealestate Thu, 27 Mar 2008 23:42:43 +0000 http://walnutcreekcaliforniarealestate.wordpress.com/?p=17#comment-24 You're right. Lots of folks weren't asking why prices were going UP $500 A DAY for a couple of years! No one should be surprised but ... lo and behold, many are. You’re right. Lots of folks weren’t asking why prices were going UP $500 A DAY for a couple of years! No one should be surprised but … lo and behold, many are.

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